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How to Use xG in Football Betting: Improving Forecast Quality

In modern football, statistics play a crucial role. One of the most useful indicators for analyzing teams’ attacking potential is xG (expected goals). This metric allows for assessing the sharpness of created chances and their conversion probability. Bettors who skillfully utilize this statistical parameter significantly increase the accuracy of their forecasts. In this article, we will delve into how xG is calculated and how to use this indicator to enhance the quality of football betting forecasts. And if you are just getting started with betting and looking for a reliable bookmaker, then try the Melbet Zambia App download. It’s a mobile application from a bookmaker with a good reputation, offering everything necessary for quality betting.

The Essence of the xG Metric

Expected goals (xG) is a statistical indicator that evaluates the probability of converting each dangerous opportunity in a match. It is expressed on a scale from 0 to 1 (or in percentages from 0 to 100%) and is calculated considering various factors: distance to the goal, angle of the shot, goalkeeper and defenders’ positions, the method of attack completion, and so on. The closer xG is to one, the higher the chance of scoring from that situation. The total xG of a team for a match is the sum of the indicators for all its dangerous moments.

Methods of Calculating xG

There is no single formula for calculating expected goals – each statistical company uses its model. More advanced models take into account a greater number of factors, including players’ skills, weather conditions, pitch conditions, and so on. However, the algorithm for calculating xG is generally quite universal. First, the parameters of each moment (distance, angle, player positions) are recorded. Then, these data are compared with historical results of similar situations, based on which the goal probability is determined.

Additional Indicators

In addition to the main xG, other metrics are derived from it. For example, xGA (expected goals against) evaluates the quality of chances created by the opponent and reflects the expected number of goals conceded. xP (expected points) is the number of points a team could have earned if its actual results matched xG and xGA.


Moreover, individual xG is calculated for each player, showing their ability to convert chances. These additional metrics can also be used for analysis and forecasting.

Application of xG in Betting

Although xG is not a panacea, this metric opens up interesting possibilities for football betting:

  • Identifying undervalued/overvalued teams. If there is a significant discrepancy between a team’s actual goals and its xG, these indicators will converge shortly. For example, bet on the Over goals scored by this team for high odds.
  • Total bets. Exceeding or underperforming xG and xGA by teams can serve as a guide for betting on the total number of goals in a match. High cumulative xG values indicate the potential for a high-scoring game and vice versa.
  • Individual player goals. Individual xG of footballers shows their actual sharpness in front of goal. Valuable bets on specific players’ goals can be found by comparing this indicator with the odds offered.


  • Positional bets. By reviewing teams’ xP, one can assess how much they are underperforming or overperforming their expected points plan. This allows making long-term bets on their final position in the league table.


The expected goals metric opens up new horizons in football analytics and forecasting. It allows assessing teams’ actual game statistics from a different perspective and identifying interesting patterns and trends. However, it is important to understand that xG is just one of many statistical tools that should not be absolutized. It provides a good insight into attacking activity, but comprehensive analysis considering many other factors is always necessary.

In the future, expected goals calculation algorithms will be further refined, and their accuracy will increase. But even now, this metric is a valuable aid for bettors, helping to improve forecast quality and find profitable bets on football matches. The main thing is learning to interpret it correctly and apply it with other data.